The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has passed 10,000 laboratory-confirmed cases, making it the second-largest Ebola epidemic ever recorded. The milestone comes in the same week that the first volunteers were vaccinated in a major trial of candidate vaccines, offering the first real prospect of a tool designed to fight this particular strain.
The scale of the outbreak
The outbreak is caused by Bundibugyo virus, one of the less common species of ebolavirus. Unlike the Zaire species behind the 2014-2016 West African epidemic and several previous Congolese outbreaks, there is no approved vaccine or specific treatment for Bundibugyo virus disease.
According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), DRC had recorded 10,141 confirmed cases and 4,928 deaths across eight provinces as of 26 October, with community transmission continuing. Ituri province in the north-east has been the epicentre. The outbreak was officially declared in May, although researchers believe infections began months earlier. Only the West African epidemic, with roughly 28,000 infections, has been larger.
The disease has also crossed borders. Kenya has confirmed nine cases, all linked to a man who travelled from DRC via Uganda, and ECDC reports two deaths there. Nigeria confirmed a single imported case in Abuja on 20 October; ECDC says the patient was medically evacuated to Switzerland and dozens of contacts are being monitored. Uganda’s earlier outbreak has been declared over.
A plateau, not a decline
An Associated Press report published on 29 October said DRC is recording roughly 400 to 500 new confirmed cases each week, a figure that has held fairly steady. That is not exponential growth, but experts quoted by AP warned it is not a sign the epidemic is ending either. Emory University’s Dr Boghuma Titanji described the situation as a plateau at a very high level, while the president of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, Dr Wendy Armstrong, said the outbreak was “very far from being controlled”.
One worrying indicator is contact tracing. AP reported that fewer than a quarter of new cases come from people already known to be contacts of infected patients, suggesting chains of transmission are going undetected. WHO figures for 20 October showed that about 80 per cent of more than 30,000 listed contacts in DRC had been followed up in the previous 24 hours, short of the 95 per cent target. Africa CDC’s director-general, Jean Kaseya, has said the continent is not winning the fight.
The vaccine trial
On 23 October the first participant was vaccinated in Bunia, Ituri, in a trial called Tumaini, a pivotal Phase 2/3 study funded by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). It is co-led by DRC’s national biomedical research institute, the INRB, and the University of Antwerp, with support from WHO, Africa CDC, Médecins Sans Frontières and others.
The trial uses an adaptive platform design, meaning several vaccines can be tested side by side and added over time. It relies on ring vaccination, offering vaccine to the contacts of confirmed cases and their contacts. The first candidate to be tested is Ervebo, the vaccine already licensed against the Zaire species of Ebola. Two candidates designed specifically for Bundibugyo virus, one from Moderna and one from the University of Oxford with the Serum Institute of India, are expected to join shortly.
It is important to be clear about what this means. A trial starting is not the same as a vaccine working: the study is designed to find out whether these candidates are safe, whether they trigger an immune response and whether they prevent disease. Dr Titanji told AP she was hopeful an effective vaccine could be available within a year, but that is an expert estimate, not a confirmed timeline.
What it means for Ireland and Europe
ECDC currently assesses the likelihood of infection for people living in the EU/EEA as very low, and as low for EU residents living in or travelling to affected areas. Since May, four cases linked to the DRC outbreak have been medically evacuated to or diagnosed in the EU/EEA, in Germany, the Netherlands and France; all involved people working in healthcare or humanitarian roles in affected parts of DRC. No case has been reported in Ireland. WHO continues to advise against travel or trade restrictions on affected countries.
What happens next
WHO has said it is revising its risk assessment, last formally set in August, in light of the spread to Kenya and Nigeria. Key things to watch in the coming weeks are whether weekly case numbers in DRC begin to fall, whether contact tracing improves, and whether further cases appear outside DRC. Early safety and immune-response data from the Tumaini trial, and the arrival of the Bundibugyo-specific candidates, will also be closely followed. Anyone returning from affected areas who develops a fever within 21 days should contact a doctor by phone before attending in person.
Sources
- ECDC: Ebola disease, multi-country outbreak 2026 (updated 28 October 2026)
- WHO: Disease Outbreak News, Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus, DRC, Kenya and Nigeria (23 October 2026)
- ABC News/Associated Press: Experts warn of wider spread as Ebola outbreak reaches plateau (29 October 2026)
- CEPI: First participant vaccinated in pivotal Phase 2/3 Bundibugyo vaccine trial in DRC (23 October 2026)
Featured image: Ebola virus virion.jpg by CDC/Cynthia Goldsmith, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
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