Kyiv’s long-range drone campaign against Russia’s oil industry appears to be back on, despite weeks of pressure from Donald Trump’s White House to stop it.
Overnight into Sunday 1 November, the NORSI refinery at Kstovo in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region was reported to be on fire after a drone attack. The plant, also known as Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez, is Russia’s fourth-largest refinery and its second-biggest producer of petrol, processing an estimated 15 to 17 million tonnes of crude a year, according to the Kyiv Independent. It sits roughly 800km from the Ukrainian border.
The regional governor said an unnamed facility had suffered “significant damage” in a “massive” drone attack, but that no one was hurt and officials were working to keep petrol stations supplied. Russian investigators have opened a terrorism case, according to the state news agency TASS, as reported by ABC News. Ukrainian media identified the target as the Kstovo refinery; the Kyiv Independent noted the initial reports, which came from Telegram monitoring channels, could not be immediately verified.
Senior Russian official Alexander Novak said Ukraine had struck three refineries and a gas-chemical complex. Russia’s defence ministry said it downed 235 Ukrainian drones overnight.
The ‘pause’ that wasn’t
The strike lands in the middle of a diplomatic row. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Ukraine had quietly paused attacks on Russian refineries from mid-October, after Trump adviser Jared Kushner asked Kyiv for a 30-day halt, framing it as a gesture of thanks for US peace efforts. Kyiv never announced a formal pause, and Reuters said it could not independently verify the report, according to Hromadske.
Ukraine reportedly asked for something in return: either a Russian halt to attacks on Ukraine’s own power grid, or more US Patriot air defence missiles. Neither materialised, the Kyiv Post reported. President Volodymyr Zelensky was quoted as saying the military had never been ordered to stop, only to be more careful for now.
Moscow said on Friday that Ukraine had resumed refinery strikes after a pause of several days. Kyiv says it targets Russian oil and gas sites in retaliation for Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which are again intensifying. Ukraine’s air force said Russia launched 433 long-range drones from Saturday evening, of which 371 were shot down, and Zelensky said hundreds of thousands of households lost power across four regions.
Why Trump cares: diesel
Trump has repeatedly blamed Ukraine’s refinery attacks for rising diesel prices in the United States, telling reporters in October that Zelensky “better damn well stop”. Energy analysts cited by the Kyiv Post point instead to the war with Iran and wider disruption to global oil markets. With Americans voting in the midterms on Tuesday, pump prices are politically explosive.
Meanwhile, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have reportedly floated a much bigger idea: restarting Russian gas sales to Europe through Ukraine’s pipelines, with an American intermediary, transit fees for Kyiv and proceeds held in escrow in a third country. The plan was reported by the Wall Street Journal and covered by other outlets including SFG Media, which said the discussions had stalled.
Brussels has shown no appetite. EU law already bans short-term contract imports of Russian gas, ends Russian LNG under long-term contracts from 1 January 2027 and phases out pipeline gas by 30 September 2027. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said in October the ban would stay even after peace in Ukraine.
What it means for you
Ireland does not buy gas directly from Russia, but Irish fuel and energy bills follow international wholesale markets. Refinery outages in Russia, the Strait of Hormuz crisis and any wobble in Europe’s gas plans all feed into what Irish drivers pay at the pump and what households pay to heat their homes this winter. A fragile energy ceasefire, if one ever comes, could ease some of that pressure; continued tit-for-tat strikes on energy sites point the other way.
What happens next
A further round of US, Russian and Ukrainian talks is expected later in November, reportedly in the United Arab Emirates. A Kremlin aide said Vladimir Putin “has never refused talks” and would take a call from Zelensky. In Washington, the question is whether the White House turns up the pressure on Kyiv once the midterm votes are counted, and whether Ukraine’s drones keep flying regardless.
Sources
- Kyiv Independent: Russian oil refinery in Kstovo ablaze after reported overnight drone strike (1 November 2026)
- ABC News (Australia): Russia opens terrorism case over Ukraine attack on industrial facility (1 November 2026)
- Kyiv Post: Trump pressed Ukraine to halt Russian refinery strikes, WSJ reports (30 October 2026)
- Hromadske: Ukraine pauses strikes on Russian oil refineries amid US pressure ahead of midterms – WSJ (30 October 2026)
- SFG Media: US proposes restoring Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine, WSJ reports (November 2026)
Featured image: Godorf Cologne Rhineland-Refinery-03 by CEphoto, Uwe Aranas, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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