Ukraine says October was the deadliest month of the war for Russia’s army. According to Kyiv’s General Staff, Russian forces lost 54,400 soldiers killed, wounded or missing over the 31 days, the highest monthly figure it has reported since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
The claim, published on Sunday, came at the end of a weekend in which both sides pressed their long-range campaigns. Russian drones knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian homes as winter approaches, while Ukrainian drones and missiles struck oil refineries and a rocket fuel plant deep inside Russia and briefly halted flights at one of Moscow’s main airports.
The numbers, and why they need care
The General Staff’s October total is 8,170 higher than the figure it gave for September, the Kyiv Independent reported. The military said the rate of loss “exceeds the enemy’s ability to replenish its units”. Its running total of claimed Russian casualties since February 2022 now stands at more than 1.59 million.
These are Ukrainian figures, and they cannot be independently verified. Ukraine does not publish its own losses, citing operational secrecy, and Russia does not release meaningful casualty data. Independent analysts have broadly accepted that Russia is suffering heavier losses than Ukraine: a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in January estimated a ratio of roughly two or two and a half Russian casualties to every Ukrainian one, and put Ukrainian casualties between 500,000 and 600,000 from the start of the full-scale war to the end of 2025.
Ukrainian units say much of October’s toll came along Russia’s push towards Dobropillia in Donetsk region. The 1st Azov Corps claimed it alone killed, wounded or captured more than 6,800 Russian troops there. Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s drone forces, claimed his operators hit a Russian soldier every 159 seconds during the month.
Despite the losses, Moscow continues to grind forward slowly. The Institute for the Study of War, a US think-tank, said Russia has gained just over 4,000 square kilometres since March 2025, while suffering at least 698,000 casualties over the same period according to Ukrainian data. Moscow announced on 2 October that it would call up an extra 120,000 conscripts.
A winter war on the power grid
The weekend showed how the fight is shifting to energy. Russia launched 134 drones overnight from Friday into Saturday and a further 168 drones and loitering munitions during Saturday, according to the ISW. President Volodymyr Zelensky said the strikes hit a combined heat and power plant in Kyiv and four substations in Dnipropetrovsk region, leaving around 200,000 households in Dnipropetrovsk and more than 80,000 in Kyiv region without electricity.
The ISW assesses that Vladimir Putin is relying on ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones to try to break Ukraine’s will over the winter. Help with air defence may come too late: the US State Department approved a possible sale of 500 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors, but delivery of the newly made missiles is not expected until after 2030, according to reports cited by the think-tank.
Ukraine hits back inside Russia
Kyiv’s own strikes reached far into Russia. Ukrainian drones and Neptune cruise missiles hit the Kamensky plant in Rostov region overnight into Saturday, which Ukraine says produces solid rocket fuel. Ukrainian forces likely struck two refineries in Ufa, in Bashkortostan, on Saturday, with a fire reported at one unit. Moscow’s mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, said 19 drones were shot down approaching the capital, and Sheremetyevo Airport briefly suspended operations after a fire near a fuel depot, the ISW reported.
There was one glimmer of humanitarian cooperation. A localised ceasefire around occupied Oleshky in Kherson region, which began on 27 October to allow some residents to leave, has largely held. Ukraine’s human rights commissioner, Dmytro Lubinets, called it the longest such local truce since 2022.
What happens next
Peace talks remain stalled. Speaking at the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Atlanta on Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow’s position was unchanged and blamed Ukrainian long-range strikes for the deadlock. With temperatures falling, expect Russia to intensify its attacks on power stations and substations, and Ukraine to keep targeting Russian refineries. For Irish readers, the energy war on both sides matters: strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and Ukrainian gas and power networks feed into European energy prices this winter.
Sources
- Kyiv Independent: Russia suffers record troop losses in October, its worst month since full-scale invasion, Ukraine says (1 November 2026)
- Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 31, 2026 (31 October 2026)
Featured image: photo by Jan Pultin on Unsplash.
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