Iran has said it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, but only if Washington first agrees to a list of demands that the Trump administration has so far shown little sign of accepting. The offer, set out by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday, came as Iran’s Supreme Leader ordered his armed forces to widen their list of potential American and Israeli targets, and two days before US voters go to the polls.
For households in Ireland and across Europe, the stakes are not abstract. The strait carries a large share of the world’s seaborne oil, and CBS News reported last week that both Brent crude and the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, were trading about 70 per cent higher than a year ago.
What Iran is offering
Speaking in Tehran, Mr Araghchi said talks with Qatari mediators were continuing on a plan under which the waterway would reopen quickly once Iran’s terms were met, according to reports by Al Jazeera relayed by the ANI news agency. Iran had proposed a five-day implementation period; Qatar suggested cutting that to two.
The conditions, as listed in those reports, are sweeping. Iran wants the lifting of US sanctions reimposed after an earlier memorandum agreed in Islamabad collapsed in July, a reduction in US forces in the region, the restoration of oil waivers, and the release of frozen Iranian funds, including money held in Qatar. It also wants formal recognition of a new shipping route through the strait worked out with Oman, with other routes closed, and an end to the war on all fronts, in particular Israel’s attacks on Lebanon.
Mr Araghchi said reopening the strait on those terms would allow negotiations with Washington to resume. Mohsen Rezaei, the hardline head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, went further, saying there would be no talks and the strait would stay closed unless Iran’s conditions were met.
Mixed signals from both sides
The diplomatic picture is confusing, even by the standards of this eight-month war. Qatari mediators spent more than 12 hours in talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on Friday and Doha on Saturday, while staying in contact with the Americans, according to the Institute for the Study of War. But no date has been set for a US delegation to travel to Doha, Axios reported, and Iran’s Tasnim agency said Tehran had no plans to meet US officials there.
The talks follow a letter from US Vice President JD Vance to Mr Rezaei, delivered through Qatar. Mr Rezaei said Washington’s tone had changed, which he described as a positive sign. President Trump, however, has played down the letter’s significance, saying it was meant to help get medical supplies into Iran rather than restart peace talks, CBS News reported.
Mr Trump’s own comments have pointed in two directions. He said Iran wanted to make a deal and that discussions were “going fine”, while calling Tehran “not very reliable”. He also warned that the US could strike Iran’s remaining nuclear sites “in 10 minutes” and refused to say whether he would order new attacks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday that the President had not yet decided on further military action.
Khamenei orders ‘maximum deterrence’
On the Iranian side, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei met his top commanders on Saturday and ordered the armed forces to achieve “maximum deterrence”, widening their target list to all US and Israeli assets without geographical limits, according to the Institute for the Study of War. In a Telegram post reported by AFP, he warned the US against resuming attacks. Iran’s armed forces chief said a new list of US and Israeli targets across the region had been drawn up, Khaleej Times reported.
At sea, the danger is rising. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre said October saw more attacks in the strait than any other month of the war, just over 30, CBS reported. Iran’s navy claimed several tankers struck mines on Friday, a claim the Associated Press could not verify, and Oman rescued 25 crew from a burning Panama-flagged tanker. The US military insists the southern shipping lanes are clear and safe.
What happens next
The next 72 hours are critical. Qatar’s mediation continues, Iran is still studying the mediators’ proposals, and Mr Trump has kept the threat of renewed strikes on the table while declining to say what he will do once Tuesday’s midterm elections are over. Any move to reopen the strait would likely ease oil prices quickly; any return to large-scale strikes could push them higher again. Irish motorists and households on home heating oil will be watching closely. Connemara Journal will update this story as talks develop.
Sources
- ANI: Araghchi says Iran, Qatar propose reopening Strait of Hormuz within two days if US meets Tehran’s conditions (1 November 2026)
- The Tribune: Araghchi says Iran, Qatar propose reopening Strait of Hormuz within two days (1 November 2026)
- Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats: Iran Update, October 31, 2026 (31 October 2026)
- CBS News: Live updates, Trump suggests more attacks on Iran after Ayatollah warns against resuming war (30-31 October 2026)
- Khaleej Times: Iran negotiators in Doha for Qatar-mediated talks to end US-Iran war (31 October 2026)
Featured image: photo by Fredrick F. on Unsplash.
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