Analysis: As the Dáil moves to scrap the triple lock and the US-Iran war drags into its ninth month, a blunt question keeps coming up: if the world’s flashpoints boiled over, what would it mean for Ireland? This opinion analysis looks at where Irish neutrality leaves the country on undersea cables, energy and Shannon Airport, drawing on what officials and experts have said. It is not a prediction that war is coming.
Irish neutrality and the triple lock
On October 21 the Government’s Defence (Amendment) Bill passed second stage in the Dáil by 79 votes to 71. It would remove the triple lock, which requires UN Security Council, Government and Oireachtas approval before 12 or more Defence Forces members can join an armed mission overseas.
Defence Minister Helen McEntee said it was “absolutely crazy” that the Security Council’s permanent members have a say over Irish deployments, and Taoiseach Micheál Martin insists the change does not undermine neutrality. Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald wants a public vote, while the Social Democrats and Greens argue it erodes a core part of Irish policy. The bill still has further stages to clear.
The cables beneath our seas
The more immediate exposure is under the water. In a submission on the national maritime security strategy, reported by the Irish Times in April, the Department of Communications said subsea cables carry more than 99 per cent of Ireland’s data traffic, and warned that several coordinated cuts could leave the whole island disconnected from the global internet.
Bloomberg reported this summer that almost three-quarters of the northern hemisphere’s undersea telecoms pass through or near Irish waters, that the Russian vessel Yantar has been seen in the Irish Sea, and that the Naval Service has eight patrol ships, a crew shortage and no primary radar. Eoin McNamara of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs summed it up: “The Irish security mindset hasn’t really caught up” with the country’s prosperity.
The energy bill is already arriving
Ireland does not have to fight to feel a war’s cost. In March, after the US and Israel struck Iran, the ESRI raised its inflation forecast for this year to 3.2 per cent from 2.1 per cent, and the Central Bank warned a prolonged conflict could push inflation to 4.2 per cent, with lower-income households hit hardest. IATA boss Willie Walsh said jet fuel prices had climbed about 50 per cent in a month. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still heavily disrupted, those warnings have not gone away.
Shannon: the political pressure point
Shannon is where the debate gets most local. The Department of Foreign Affairs says foreign military aircraft need diplomatic clearance and must be unarmed, carry no weapons or explosives and not be part of a military operation. Social Democrats senator Patricia Stephenson and People Before Profit TD Paul Murphy have urged a ban on US military stopovers, citing Spain’s decision to bar US military operations from its territory.
In March the Taoiseach said Shannon was not being used to support the US war on Iran, though he admitted Ireland’s capacity to investigate breaches of its airspace was “challenging and problematic”.
Panic is not a policy
None of this means war is coming to Ireland. The risks officials describe are mostly sabotage, surveillance and price shocks rather than invasion. Defence has a record €1.5 billion budget, Ireland published its first maritime security strategy this year and it has agreed a defence memorandum with the UK, though Bloomberg notes spending is still around 0.2 per cent of GDP, the lowest in the EU.
In my view, the honest debate about Irish neutrality is less about joining a world war than about whether a neutral state can protect its own seas, cables and economy when others go to war. On current evidence, that question is still waiting for an answer.
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Sources: The Irish Times, The Irish Times, Bloomberg via Anchorage Daily News, The Irish Times, Euronews, Irish Examiner, The Irish Times
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