Home News Storm Chloe: when will it hit Ireland? What Met Éireann’s long-range forecast REALLY says – and why the calm won’t last

Storm Chloe: when will it hit Ireland? What Met Éireann’s long-range forecast REALLY says – and why the calm won’t last

Rough seas off the Connemara coast

After Storm Austen and Storm Boelo battered the country in October, the internet has already moved on to the next name on the list: Chloe. Some websites have suggested Met Éireann has “pinpointed” when it will strike. So what does the national forecaster actually say?

The honest answer is that no storm called Chloe has been forecast. But Met Éireann’s longer-range outlook does suggest that the current spell of calm, settled weather is unlikely to last through the whole of November.

This week: high pressure in charge

For now, Ireland is sitting under high pressure. Met Éireann’s national forecast, issued on Sunday afternoon, described Monday as dry and bright with plenty of sunshine and light winds, with highs of 10 to 13 degrees. Tuesday brings a mix of cloud and sunshine, while Wednesday turns cloudier with patchy light rain or drizzle at times in eastern counties.

The forecaster says high pressure is likely to stay in control for the rest of the week, keeping things mostly dry and settled with light winds. Nights have been chilly, with lows of 0 to 4 degrees on Sunday night and some grass frost and fog. There were no weather or marine warnings in place.

The long-range outlook: where the change comes

Met Éireann’s extended-range forecast, issued on Friday 30 October, sketches out the next four weeks:

  • 2 to 8 November: High pressure likely to persist, with temperatures near average and largely dry conditions.
  • 9 to 15 November: High pressure weakens. Some rain is expected over southern counties, while elsewhere stays mostly dry and settled, with temperatures slightly above average.
  • 16 to 22 November: Low pressure is expected to become the main influence, bringing wetter than normal conditions, with temperatures above average.
  • 23 to 29 November: Low pressure continues, with more rain than normal and a little unsettled.

The Irish Times, reporting on an earlier version of the outlook on Friday, noted that Met Éireann flagged the likelihood of “spells of wet and windy conditions” in the third week of the month.

So is Storm Chloe coming?

Low pressure dominating in the second half of November raises the chances of a stormy spell, and that is likely to be what has fuelled the online speculation. But it is a big leap from “wetter than normal” to a named storm on a particular date.

Met Éireann itself is clear about the limits of these outlooks. It says forecasts beyond a week have low skill and should not be used for specific planning. Extended-range forecasts describe broad weather patterns, not individual storms.

It is also worth knowing how storms get their names. Under the joint system run by Met Éireann, the UK Met Office and the Dutch service KNMI, a storm is named when it could cause “medium” or “high” impacts in one of the three countries. The service expected to be hit hardest, or first, does the naming. Chloe is the third name on the 2026/27 list and was chosen by the UK Met Office, so if the next storm is expected to hit Britain first, it may well be named in London rather than Glasnevin. After Chloe come Dano and then Evelyn, which is one of Met Éireann’s picks.

What it means for you

  • This week: A good window for outdoor jobs, garden clean-ups and getting gutters cleared before the weather turns.
  • Drivers: Clear nights mean frost and fog in the mornings. Allow extra time and keep an eye on Met Éireann’s warnings page.
  • Farmers: The dry spell offers a chance to finish autumn field work before wetter conditions are signalled from mid-month.
  • Everyone: Be wary of dramatic social media posts naming storm dates weeks in advance. Met Éireann warnings are the only official word.

What happens next

Met Éireann updates its extended forecast weekly and its national forecast several times a day. If a storm system with the potential for significant impacts develops, it would typically be named a few days before arrival, with weather warnings issued alongside. Until then, enjoy the calm.

Sources

Featured image: Rough sea by Golam Island – geograph.org.uk – 1578267 by Jonathan Wilkins, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

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