Two days out from the US midterm elections, the battle for the House of Representatives looks like Democrats’ to lose. The Senate is a different story. Control of the 100-seat chamber, which decides whether President Donald Trump can keep confirming judges and officials without a fight, will be settled by a dozen states where the final polls are close, contradictory, or both.
Democrats hold 47 seats and need to get to 51. Here is where the map stands, based on the latest race ratings from CBS News and Fox News and the polling round-up published by Yahoo News on Saturday.
The big picture
Fox News’ Power Rankings, updated on Thursday, had Democrats favoured in 48 seats and Republicans in 46, with six states still undecided. On a good night, it said, Democrats could reach 54 seats; on a good Republican night the GOP could reach 52. The CBS News data desk identified 11 Senate battlegrounds and classed five as toss-ups: Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas and Alaska. It rated Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina as leaning Republican, and Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire as leaning Democratic.
Nationally the wind is behind Democrats. Silver Bulletin’s average gives them a lead of almost nine points on the generic congressional ballot, and Mr Trump’s approval is about 37 per cent in the same average, Yahoo News reported. But Senate races are fought state by state, and several are being contested in places Mr Trump carried comfortably.
The five true toss-ups
Maine: Republican Susan Collins, the great survivor of New England politics, is trying to hold off Democrat Troy Jackson. Recent polls compiled by the New York Times show Mr Jackson ahead by between two and seven points, with Data for Progress putting him five up on Friday. Ms Collins spent Friday in rural northern Maine, stressing the clout she wields on the Appropriations Committee.
Michigan: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has led 11 of 12 October polls against Republican Mike Rogers, by between one and seven points. But a public rift with his former primary rival, Congresswoman Haley Stevens, over his comments on Israel has overshadowed the closing days.
Ohio: Democrat Sherrod Brown is trying to return to the Senate against Republican Jon Husted. A Fox News poll had Mr Brown ahead 52-47, and Suffolk University put him three points up, though one poll released on Saturday showed a statistical tie. Fox has moved Ohio to “Lean Democrat”.
Texas: The one Democrats have dreamed about for decades. Most autumn polls give Democrat James Talarico a lead of two to six points over Republican Ken Paxton, but a Fox News poll had them tied at 49 each and Quantus Insights put Mr Paxton one point ahead on Friday.
Alaska: Democrat Mary Peltola led Senator Dan Sullivan in October polling, but the race has been upended by federal and state investigations into a second candidate also called Dan Sullivan. Ms Peltola denies any involvement in recruiting him.
The Republican seats under siege
Kansas: Perhaps the biggest surprise of the cycle. Democrat Adam Hamilton has led Senator Roger Marshall by between one and five points in most recent polls, according to Yahoo’s review, which is why Mr Trump is flying in on Sunday.
Iowa: Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek have traded small leads, and Mr Trump is also visiting on Sunday.
South Carolina: Darline Graham, sister of the late Lindsey Graham, was tied 48-48 with Democrat Annie Andrews in a New York Times/Siena poll.
Nebraska: Independent Dan Osborn is challenging Republican Pete Ricketts. A New York Times/Siena poll on Saturday gave Mr Ricketts a six-point lead.
The seats leaning Democrat
In Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff led Republican Mike Collins by nine points on average in October. In North Carolina, former Democratic governor Roy Cooper held a double-digit average lead over Republican Michael Whatley. In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas was about seven points ahead of Republican John Sununu over the past month.
Every one of these numbers comes with a warning. Polls are snapshots, they have missed in both directions in recent elections, and undecided voters still average about 10 per cent in Alaska, Iowa and Kansas, according to Fox News.
What happens next
Polls close in waves on Tuesday night, beginning at about 11pm Irish time in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, with Georgia and South Carolina following at midnight and Alaska among the last to finish. Some results will be slow: Pennsylvania cannot start processing postal ballots until polling day, CBS News reported, and Alaska’s ranked-choice system can delay a final count by days. Record early turnout, with more than 44 million ballots cast by Thursday according to the University of Florida Election Lab, adds another layer of uncertainty. Expect the Senate picture to be clearer by breakfast time on Wednesday in Ireland, but do not be surprised if one or two races remain open for longer.
Sources
- Yahoo News: The 2026 midterms are just 3 days away, here’s what the latest polls say (31 October 2026)
- CBS News: 2026 elections live updates, candidates make their final push (30 October 2026)
- Fox News: Fox News Power Rankings shift Ohio and South Carolina Senate races (29 October 2026)
- Fox News: 3 days to go, candidates fan out across battlegrounds as midterms hit final weekend (31 October 2026)
Featured image: Capitol at Dusk 2 by Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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