Formula 1 could crown its youngest ever world champion on Sunday night, and the man in question spent Thursday in bed. Kimi Antonelli, the 20-year-old Mercedes driver, arrives at the Mexico City Grand Prix with a lead so large that the title is already all but his. The only question left is whether he seals it this weekend or makes everyone wait until Brazil.
Antonelli won the United States Grand Prix in Austin last weekend, his ninth victory of the season, and that left him 123 points clear of his Mercedes team-mate George Russell and 124 ahead of Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton, according to Sky Sports. Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris are already mathematically out of the running.
What Antonelli needs on Sunday
The maths is kind to the Italian. With five races left, Mexico City, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, Russell and Hamilton can only stay alive by winning in Mexico while Antonelli fails to score at all, and their chances beyond that are purely theoretical.
Sky Sports’ breakdown of the permutations puts it simply:
- If Antonelli finishes ninth or higher, which earns two points, he is champion.
- Even if he scores nothing, he is champion as long as neither Russell nor Hamilton wins the race.
Put another way, only a pointless afternoon for Antonelli combined with a victory for one of his two remaining rivals can drag the fight on to São Paulo. At 20, he would beat the record for the youngest title winner, a mark that has stood since Sebastian Vettel’s first championship in 2010.
Mercedes are also closing in on the constructors’ crown. They lead Ferrari by 133 points, Sky reports, although clinching that in Mexico would need something close to a dream result for Mercedes and a disaster for both Ferraris. Ferrari have outscored their rivals at each of the last three race weekends, so that battle may run a little longer.
The virus scare
The build-up was not as smooth as Mercedes would have wanted. Antonelli was excused by the FIA from Thursday’s mandatory media sessions after picking up a viral illness. Mercedes said he was feeling under the weather and needed rest, and told Sky Sports they expected him back in the car on Friday.
He was not the only driver laid low. Cadillac’s Valtteri Bottas also missed media day through illness, with the team describing his absence as precautionary and saying Colton Herta would drive in practice.
By Friday, Antonelli was back at work, and quickly. Motorsport Week’s classification of the first practice session had him second behind Ferrari’s Leclerc, who set the pace with a 1m18.128s. In second practice, Autosport’s live coverage showed him running near the top of the times before Norris went quickest late on, while the session was also notable for contact between Verstappen and Liam Lawson that sent debris into the Red Bull’s bodywork.
Why this matters
Antonelli was handed one of the most scrutinised seats in the sport when he stepped up to replace Hamilton at Mercedes, and there were plenty of doubters after an up-and-down first season. Nine wins later, he has turned 2026 into a procession. Mercedes boss Toto Wolff called his Austin drive “exceptional”, per Sky Sports.
For Hamilton, now at Ferrari and chasing a record eighth title, the numbers mean the dream is effectively over for another year. For Russell, the more awkward story is that he has been comprehensively beaten by a team-mate several years his junior in the same car.
What happens next
Final practice and qualifying take place on Saturday, with qualifying at 9pm Irish time. The Mexico City Grand Prix starts at 8pm Irish time on Sunday 1 November, on Sky Sports F1 in Ireland and the UK. If the title is not settled in Mexico, the next chance comes at the São Paulo Grand Prix the following weekend.
The one thing that could still get in the way is health. Antonelli’s quick return to the top of the timesheets suggests the bug has passed, but Mercedes will be watching him closely before the most important Sunday of his young career.
Sources
- Sky Sports: Kimi Antonelli F1 title permutations (26 October 2026)
- Sky Sports: Kimi Antonelli misses Mexico City GP media day due to viral illness (29 October 2026)
- Motorsport Week: F1 2026 Mexico City Grand Prix FP1 results (30 October 2026)
- Autosport: F1 Mexico GP FP2 live text (30 October 2026)
- Crash.net: F1 Mexico Grand Prix live, Friday practice (30 October 2026)
Featured image: Andrea Kimi Antonelli 2025 Italian Grand Prix qualifying3.jpg by Eustace Bagge, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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